Automated dialing systems have enhanced the productivity of telemarketing personnel in businesses, political and charitable organizations by increasing the number of customer contacts each agent can make. Prior to the advent of predictive dialing systems, telemarketing agents typically selected telephone numbers from a hardcopy listing. The agents manually dialed these numbers. Most of these manually initiated calls did not result in a contact with the targeted individuals. The primary reasons for the failure of these calls were: there was no answer; the line was busy; or the agent dialed the wrong number. Even successfully completed calls used the agents' time inefficiently, since the agents were required to dial the number and wait for the call recipient to answer.
Automated dialing systems eliminated these unproductive uses of the agents' time. In the automated systems, the numbers are dialed under control of one or more computers. The dialing systems recognize rings, busy signals and answers. The systems also detect whether each agent is currently engaged in a call, or is idle. A call is not transferred to an agent until an answer is detected by the system and the agent is idle. The agents are thus provided with a steady stream of answered calls. Automated dialing ensures uniform coverage within the range of telephone numbers targeted.
U.S. Pat. No. 4,438,296 to Smith discusses a typical automated telephone polling method in which telephone numbers are selected from a queue on the basis of least prior unsuccessful attempts at calling each telephone number. Given an automatic dialer capable of simultaneously dialing a fixed number of telephone numbers, this method enhances the frequency of successfully completed calls. Once a call is answered, the system plays back one of a plurality of prerecorded messages, with the ability to associate specific messages with specific phone numbers. The system selects the order in which numbers are dialed to achieve a desired message playback sequence. Playing back messages in a predetermined sequence allows the system to minimize repositioning of the magnetic media on which the recorded messages are stored. This reduces the wear in the magnetic media.
Some of the automated dialing systems provide further assistance by displaying softcopy information to the agent while he talks to a called party. Substantial amounts of information can be provided to the operator without wasteful storage and handling of the data in hardcopy. For example, U.S. Pat. No. 4,599,493 to Cave discusses a system in which a plurality of agents are each provided a bi-directional audio communications device and a display terminal connected to a central host computer. The host computer provides a group of telephone numbers to a controller. Each number is dialed by the controller, which also detects rings, busy signals and voice answers. Upon detection of a voice answer, the called line is connected to an idle operator. At the same time, the host computer provides information about the call recipient to the operator via the display terminal. As the operator receives information from the called party, he can enter it into the terminal for transmission to the host.
In order to maximize the time each agent spends talking, an automated dialing system has to provide an answered call almost immediately after an agent becomes idle. This often requires the dialing system to start dialing a call before an agent is available. Selecting the time to initiate the call is a non-deterministic process. The length of time before the called party answers the phone and the length of time before an operator becomes available are both unknown. Systems which use this technique are called "predictive dialing systems".
Because customer answer time and agent availability time are unknown, the predictive dialing system may dial a call early, so that the called party answers before an agent is available. Two alternatives are available in this "unattended call" situation. The system can terminate the call immediately. This alternative wastes the opportunity to talk to the called party. In the second alternative, the system can play a recording and put the called party on hold until an operator is available. The advantage of this alternative is that the agents are provided with a continuous sequence of answered calls. On the other hand, placing a called party on hold can reduce the customer's receptiveness to the agent's message, and some potential customers will grow impatient and hang up. Neither of the two alternatives is totally satisfactory; the best solution is to avoid unattended calls in the first place.
Predictive dialing systems employ scheduling algorithms which attempt to provide answered calls just as agents become available to service them. For example, U.S. Pat. No. 4,829,563 to Crockett et al. discusses a predictive dialing method which reduces the number of unattended calls. In this method, the system periodically monitors the number of active conversations, the number of pending calls (dialed but not yet answered) and the number of idle agents in the system.
The Crockett system generates a prediction of the number of calls which will be answered at the end of a predetermined time interval, and the number of agents who will be idle at the end of the same interval. The predicted number of calls includes the portion of the pending calls that are answered, plus additional calls to be dialed during the interval, plus a "weighting factor." The predicted number of idle agents includes those idle agents who are not assigned calls during the interval, plus additional busy agents who complete their calls. The system adjusts the rate at which new calls are dialed based on comparisons between the weighted predicted number of calls and the predicted number of agents.
Previous automated dialing systems did not provide the agent full telephone key pad functionality through the computer terminal input devices (keyboard or mouse). The agents were forced to divert their attention from the computer terminal to the telephone in order to adjust volume, mute the call, hang up, terminate the call, or dial a number manually. This interfered with the agents' ability to carefully record data gathered during conversations with called parties.